Photo : nato.int
30 June 2022, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #241
War in Ukraine: Day 126
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 28 June, Ukraine’s president addressed the NATO summit and said that it needed more advanced weapons and financial assistance to sustain its war efforts. He reiterated that Ukraine will require about USD five billion every month to rebuild the country. Zelenskyy also mentioned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not only to not only destabilizes Ukraine but also to “dictate conditions in Europe.”
Also on the same day, Foreign Minister Dymitro Kuleba appreciated NATO for taking a clear stance on Russia, regarding their invasion of Ukraine. He said: “Today in Madrid, NATO proved it can take difficult, but essential decision… We welcome a clear-eyed stance on Russia, as well as accession for Finland and Sweden. An equally strong and active position on Ukraine will help to protect the Euro-Atlantic security and stability.”
On June 29, the mayor of Mykolaiv, Oleksandr Senkevych said that 8 missiles had struck the city. He also mentioned that an X-55 cruise missile allegedly hit residential buildings and urged the citizens to evacuate.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said that Ukraine had its biggest prisoner of war exchange since the beginning of the war. 144 soldiers who have defended Mariupol’s Azov Steelworks have been released. Amongst them, 43 members were from the Azov regiment that Russia considers a dangerous far-right battalion.
A US soldier, Alexander Drueke, captured in eastern Ukraine, said that he had not fired even a single shot. He asked for leniency from the Russia-backed separatist authorities and said that his on-ground experience was only for the day he was captured outside Kharkiv.
On 29 June, the Russia-backed military-civilian administration in Kherson reported that it has started preparations for a referendum about joining Russia. However, the deputy head of the administration, Kirill Stremousov said that a date has not yet been chosen.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 29 June, Russia’s diplomat Maria Zakharova accused the UK’s defence secretary Ben Wallace of spreading fake news and making remarks about her. Zakharova said: “cite at least one example of how I am threatening to nuke everyone every week.” This comes as Wallace had made offensive remarks about Russia’s officials and the president.
Russia’s government mentioned that it had not dropped the idea of taking over Western-owned assets and businesses in response to the actions imposed. Zakharova warned the West to keep away from the USD 300 billion of frozen funds else Russia would “act accordingly.” In addition, a Russian cola company stated that with the suspension of Coke and Pepsi in Russia, it plans to increase the production of the indigenous coke called Cola Chernogolovka.
Also, on 29 June, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin warned of retaliation if NATO deployed troops and infrastructure in Finland and Sweden. He added: “if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in kind and create the same threats for the territories from which threats towards us are created.” Putin’s comments come a day after Turkey accepted to lift its veto over Finland and Sweden’s bid to join NATO.
On the same day, Russia’s supreme court postponed the hearing on designating Ukraine’s Azov regiment as a terrorist entity. The hearing is now scheduled for 02 August. Moscow has characterized the regime as “Russian-hating neo-Nazis,” but the court had not added the regiment to the list of terrorist organizations.
On the same day, TASS reported on NATO, saying it considered Russia the current “most significant and direct threat.” NATO adopted its strategic concept at the meeting in Madrid, where it recognized Russia as the primary threat to its security alliance.
Also, on 29 June, Syria announced its recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republic. On 16 June, Russia’s presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in a meeting with Syria’s president Bashar Assad said Moscow would hail Damascus’ decision to recognize the DPR and the LPR.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 29 June, NATO released details about their new strategic concept and identified Russia as the most significant threat to Western security. The organization said that they will assist in modernizing Kyiv’s armed forces. It also decided on a seven-fold increase in combat forces along its eastern flanks to pre-empt any future Russian attacks. Reportedly, the number of troops will be raised from 40,000 to 300,000.
On the sidelines of the NATO summit, Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz said that NATO will support the war efforts of Ukraine for as long as possible. He said: “It is good that the countries that are gathered here but many others, too, make their contributions so Ukraine can defend itself - by providing financial means, humanitarian aid but also by providing the weapons that Ukraine urgently needs.”
US president Joe Biden pledged more American troops in Europe, especially to reinforce the Baltic states and Poland. He also promised to supply more warplanes and warships to the alliance.
The US director of national intelligence, Avril Haines said that President Putin will still be aiming to annex most of Ukraine. However, Haines mentioned that it is likely that Russia’s combat forces are depleted and thus they can only hope to achieve incremental gains. She said: "We perceive a disconnect between Putin's near-term military objectives in this area and his military's capacity, a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to accomplish.” She also elaborated that Russia will be more likely to be reliant on asymmetric tools like cyber attacks, controlling energy, and even nuclear weapons to “project power and influence globally.”
Poland’s president Andrej Duda said that they support US’s decision to establish the 5th Army's Headquarters and send more troops. He said, "This is news that we have been waiting for a long time… It is a fact that strengthens our safety a lot... in the difficult situation which we are in."
The British government said that they will provide an additional GBP one billion in military support. Prime minister Boris Johnson said in a statement that UK’s training and equipment are transforming Ukraine’s defence. Hundreds of Ukraine’s troops have been receiving military training in the UK, especially on the Multiple Launch Rocket Systems that the UK is supplying Ukraine with. This new support will be to further boost Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including its air defence systems, unscrewed aerial vehicles, and new electronic warfare equipment.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 29 June, the G7 leaders mentioned that they urged China to mediate and use its influence on Russia and seek an end to the invasion. The G7 also asked China to drop its “expansive maritime claims” in the South China Sea. China also responded and stated that sanctions on Russia would not be able to resolve the crisis in Ukraine and criticized the US for supplying arms and ammunition to Kyiv.
On the same day, the UN’s atomic watchdog, the IAEA, said it had lost transmission from Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The IAEA has been asking Russia to dispatch a mission to Zaporizhzhia for the past few weeks, and the recent disruption showed the urgency.
Also on 29 June, Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo visited Kyiv and met with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Widodo offered to convey any message that Zelenskyy had for Putin. Widodo added: “Even though it’s very hard to achieve, I expressed the importance of a peace resolution.” Widodo is also due to go to Moscow and offered to mediate between Putin and Zelenskyy.
On 29 June, South Korea’s president Yoon Suk-yeol expressed his concerns about Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine. Yoon also mentioned Russia’s responsibility in the war and China’s role in the international community. This comes as NATO’s strategic concept mentioned China as a security challenge to the military alliance.
On the same day, the UN’s food agency food and agriculture organization (FAO) and the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) mentioned the looming global food crisis as the war in Ukraine continues. Russia and Ukraine are the world’s top five exporters of wheat, and Moscow’s blockade of Kyiv’s ports has disrupted the wheat exports. As a result, the two agencies, FAO and OECD, forecast the wheat prices to reach 19 per cent above the pre-war levels in 2022 and 2023.
References
Samantha Lock, Maya Yang and Léonie Chao-Fong, “Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 127 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 30 June 2022
Pavel Polityuk, “Ukraine tells NATO Russia wants to dictate future world order,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Kyiv welcomes NATO's 'clear-eyed stance' on Russia,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Russian missile strike in Ukraine's Mykolaiv blamed for three deaths,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Ukraine wins release of 144 soldiers in biggest prisoner swap of war,” Reuters, 30 June 2022
“'I didn't fire a shot', says American held by separatists in eastern Ukraine,” Reuters, 30 June 2022
“Moscow-administered Kherson prepares referendum on joining Russia,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Russian diplomat accuses UK Defense Secretary of slander,” TASS, 29 June 2022
“Russia as a threat, China as a competitor: NATO adopts new Strategic Concept,” TASS, 29 June 2022
“Syria makes decision to recognize LPR, DPR — Foreign Ministry,” TASS, 29 June 2022
“Russia warns West: Don't take your assets in our country for granted,” Reuters, 29 June 2022 “Russian court postpones ruling on whether to label Mariupol regiment as terrorists,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“With Coke and Pepsi out, Russian company says it's time for Cola Chernogolovka,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Putin: Russia will respond if NATO sets up infrastructure in Finland, Sweden,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“NATO allies to send weapons to Kyiv for as long as necessary - Germany's Scholz,”
Reuters, 29 June 2022
Sabine Siebold, Robin Emmott and Pavel Polityuk, “NATO backs military aid for 'heroic' Ukraine, Russia steps up attacks,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“UK to provide another 1 bln pounds of military support to Ukraine,” Reuters, 30 June 2022
“Ukrainian troops train in Britain to use advanced rocket systems,” Reuters, 30 June 2022
Alexandra Alper, Karen Freifeld and Jonathan Landay, “Putin still wants most of Ukraine, war outlook grim -U.S. intelligence chief,” Reuters, 30 June 2022
Aislinn Laing, Andrea Shalal and Robin Emmott, “U.S. to boost military presence in Europe as NATO bolsters its eastern flank,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
Alan Charlish and Anna Wlodarczak-semczuk, “Poland's Duda says planned U.S. base boosts security from Russia,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
Philip Blenkinsop, “G7: China must press Russia to stop Ukraine war,” Reuters, 29 June 2022. “IAEA loses transmission from Ukraine’s Russian-held nuclear power plant,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Indonesian president offers to take message from Ukraine’s leader to Putin,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
Hyonhee Shin, “South Korea’s Yoon warns at NATO summit of threat to ‘universal values’,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
“Millions risk undernourishment as wheat prices surge, FAO and OECD warn,” Reuters, 29 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
AUSTRIA
Charges were dropped against the private investigator
On 29 June, charges were dropped against the private detective who taped the former vice-chancellor of Austria Heinz-Christian Strache offering bribes. The 41-year-old brought down the government in 2019 with the secretly recorded video of Strache, former vice-chancellor, and leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), offering a woman masquerading as a Russian oligarch's niece profitable government contracts in exchange for positive coverage in media platforms owned by her uncle. The charges against the private detective were dropped due to a lack of evidence however he was already serving a three and a half-year sentence for a drug-related case. The release of the video, which was taken at a luxurious vacation house in Ibiza, led to Strache resigning from office and the collapse of the coalition government. Even chancellor Sebastian Kurz was involved in a scandal of his own which led to his resignation in 2021. (Elizabeth Schumacher, "Austria: No charges against investigator who brought down government," Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2022)
GERMANY
Germany faced a slight decrease in inflation in the month of June
On 29 June, the Federal statistical office, or Destatis, stated that there was a minor reduction in the inflation rate of goods and services in June when compared to May in Germany. The average price of goods and services in June was 7.6 per cent higher than last year when compared to 7.9 per cent in May. It was earlier predicted to be eight per cent for June. The inflation rates vary for each product and service such as inflation for energy prices decreased from 38.3 per cent in May to 38 per cent in June. Inflation for services was 2.1 per cent in June when compared with 2.9 per cent in May. However, goods like groceries had their inflation rate go up from 11.1 per cent in May to 12.7 per cent in June. Dekabank chief economist Ulrich Kater says that the inflation will go on till January next year and will ease up if no further crisis pops up. The inflation started at the time of the coronavirus pandemic but escalated when Russia attacked Ukraine affecting the energy prices. ("Germany: Inflation sinks slightly to 7.6%," Deutsche Welle, 29 June 2022)
THE UK
The UK government not keeping up with its net-zero policies promises
On 29 June, the UK government was found failing to enact policies that were needed to reach the net-zero target of carbon emissions. The Climate Change Committee(CCC) expressed its concerns that the ministers would go back on the legally binding commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The government has yet to act on the policies that they have spoken of about net-zero CO2 emissions. According to CCC, the best way to tackle the rising cost of living was to implement net-zero policies. The insulation policy became a failure after the government did not help people insulate their homes. Heating would contribute a lot to greenhouse gas emissions and insulating homes would have reduced them. CCC said that the UK government should explore more renewable energy and consider temporary measures of using coal-fired power plants for a short period in response to rising energy prices. (Fiona Harvey, "Government policies will not get UK to net zero, warns damning report," the Guardian, 29 June 2022)
REGIONAL
EU members agree on the 2035 CO2 cars phase-out and multibillion Euro fund
On 29 June, the EU member nations came up with deals that might turn into laws to tackle the climate crisis. The environment ministers of the 27 member nations agreed on backing a 2035 phase-out of new fossil fuel run car sales and having a EUR 59 billion fund to protect the low-income citizens from the cost of CO2 emissions. They agreed after 16 hours of negotiation in which Germany suggested that the 2035 CO2 car sales phase-out does not include hybrid and carbon-neutral fuelled cars and see if both comply with the EU goal by 2026. Countries like Italy, Slovakia, and Bulgaria wanted to delay the phase-out to 2040. The EU's goal is to reduce net carbon emissions by 55 per cent from 1990 levels and introduce a new carbon market that emits zero CO2 by 2035. They agreed to make the rules easier for the EU to intervene in response to the carbon price spikes. The policy to help low-income citizens with EUR 59 billion will start effectively from 2027 and goes on till 2032. ("EU countries reach climate crisis deal after late-night talks," the Guardian, 29 June 2022)
NATO prepares for a cyber defense project
On 29 June, the members of NATO agreed to establish a program called “virtual rapid response cyber capability,” for defense against cyber attacks from Russia. The initiative was taken following multiple cyberattacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and increasing concern that Moscow may target the US and other NATO countries. The US has volunteered to offer “robust national capabilities,” to this program. Furthermore, during the summit NATO reiterated that the North Atlantic Treaty's Article five might also be triggered by a cyberattack, making it an attack against the alliance as a whole. (Maggie Miller, “NATO establishes program to coordinate rapid response to cyberattacks,” POLITICO, 29 June 2022)
ENVIRONMENT
UNEP and EIP launch a new project to help conserve the Mediterranean sea
On 28 June, during the Ocean conference in Lisbon, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) inaugurated the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Mediterranean Pollution Hot Spots Technical Assistance programme to reduce pollution in the Mediterranean marine and coastal environment. The programme will prepare the priority investment projects to reduce pollution in the marine and coastal environments of Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia. The Mediterranean Pollution Hot Spots Investment Programme of USD five million is a subsidiary project of GEF-funded MedProgramme established by the Barcelona Convention. (“UN Environment Programme and European Investment Bank join forces to reduce pollution,” UNEP, 28 June 2022)
GENDER
Anti-abortion activism may rise in Europe, following Roe vs Wade verdict in the US
On 28 June, POLITICO examined the influence of the US supreme court's decision to overturn abortion rights in Europe. The response to this week's Roe vs Wade decision may be a sign of a new political rift in Europe if anti-abortion movements increase in the region. The right-wing in Europe may become more divided on abortion than the left. A report by the European Parliamentary Forum for Sexual and Reproductive Rights (EPF) in 2021 stated that in total USD 81.3 million was funded for activism against abortion between 2009 and 2018 in the US. The report states that powerful mega-donors establish charitable foundations that support anti-abortion activist groups in the US. These in turn carry out operations abroad either directly or via affiliated firms. The European Center for Law and Justice and the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) International are some of the branches of conservative organizations in the US. (“The plan to overturn abortion rights in Europe,” POLITICO, 28 June 2022)